In a world where headlines often connect religion with conflict, a study offers a powerful and counterintuitive finding. Far from being a breeding ground for extremism, the intense religious experience of Ramadan fasting is actually associated with a significant decrease in terrorism in predominantly Muslim countries over the following year.
The research, published in the Journal of Peace Research (Sage Publications), provides the first causal evidence that longer and more intense Ramadan fasting leads to fewer terrorist attacks and, importantly, reduces public support for political violence.
This study, conducted by economists Roland Hodler, Paul A. Raschky, and Anthony Strittmatter, analyzed decades of data from 35 predominantly Muslim countries. Their findings challenge simplistic narratives and offer a hopeful insight into the complex relationship between faith, society, and violence.
The Question at the Heart of the Study
The researchers started with a fundamental question: Do intense religious experiences increase or decrease terrorism?
Terrorist groups with Islamist ideologies have long used religion to justify violence and gain public support. This has led to a common, but often unexamined, assumption that deeper religiosity might fuel extremism. However, this study flipped that assumption on its head, using the unique and powerful lens of Ramadan.
Why Ramadan? The researchers chose it for three compelling reasons:
- It’s Universally Practiced: Fasting during Ramadan is one of the Five Pillars of Islam and is observed by the vast majority of Muslims. Surveys from ten Muslim-majority countries show that an average of 86% of Muslims fast.
- It’s an Intense Experience: Ramadan is not just about abstaining from food and drink. It’s a month of increased prayer, charity, spiritual reflection, and communal gatherings, making it a deeply intense religious experience.
- It’s a Natural Experiment: The Islamic Hijri calendar is lunar, while our daily lives follow the solar cycle. This means Ramadan moves earlier by about 10-12 days each year. Consequently, the length of the daily fast (from dawn to sunset) varies significantly depending on the season and latitude. This creates a natural experiment: in the same country, in the same year, Muslims in a northern district might fast for much longer hours than those in a southern district. This variation is random and allows scientists to isolate the true effect of the fasting experience.
How the Study Worked: A Rigorous 50-Year Analysis
To get reliable answers, the researchers built an incredibly detailed dataset.
- The Data: They combined data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) with information on the exact location and timing of over 150,000 terrorist events in 190 countries over 50 years (1970-2019).
- The Unit of Analysis: They organized the data not by the standard Gregorian calendar, but by “Ramadan years,” tracking terrorism in the 12 months following each Ramadan.
- The Clever Comparison: Their key innovation was to compare districts within the same country and year that had different fasting durations due to their latitude. For example, they compared a northern district in Iraq where fasting was 12.5 hours to a southern district where it was 12 hours during the same Ramadan. By using this highly localized comparison, they could rule out any other factors—like national politics, economic changes, or global events—that might also influence terrorism.
The Results: Clear, Encouraging, and Hopeful
The findings were remarkably consistent and robust. The evidence points to a clear conclusion: the intense religious experience of longer Ramadan fasting makes terrorism less likely.
Let’s break down the key findings into two simple tables.
Table 1: The Powerful Effect of Longer Fasting Hours
This table shows the main result. In predominantly Muslim countries, an increase in the daily fasting duration leads to a significant drop in terrorism in the following year.
| Measurement | The Impact of One Extra Hour of Daily Fasting | What This Means |
|---|---|---|
| Probability of Any Terrorist Event | Decreases by 3.3 percentage points | In a country with many districts, the ones with longer fasts are measurably safer. |
| Probability of a Deadly Terrorist Event | Decreases by 2.6 percentage points | The reduction is not just in minor incidents, but in the most serious, life-threatening attacks. |
To put this in perspective, a difference of just 30 minutes in fasting duration between two districts could mean a nearly 1.6 percentage point difference in the likelihood of a terrorist attack.
Table 2: The “How” and “Why” – Unpacking the Mechanism
The study didn’t just stop at the headline number. It dug deeper to understand how fasting has this effect. The evidence points strongly to a reduction in public support for terrorism.
| Finding | What the Data Showed | Why It’s Encouraging |
|---|---|---|
| Effect on Different Attack Types | Longer fasting had a strong negative effect on complex, operationally difficult attacks (like bombings) but no significant effect on simpler suicide attacks. | Operationally difficult attacks require more public support (shelter, financing, intelligence). A drop in these suggests the community is less willing to help. |
| Effect on Targets | The reduction in attacks against armed targets (military, police) was larger and more robust than the reduction against unarmed civilians. | Attacking armed targets is harder and also requires more community support and legitimization. |
| Effect on Public Opinion (The “Smoking Gun”) | Using survey data from 13 countries, they found that longer fasting hours led to a significant drop in the number of people who said violence to defend Islam is “often” or “sometimes” justified. | This is the most direct evidence: the religious experience changes hearts and minds, making people more peaceful. |
| Effect on Perpetrator Groups | Longer fasting significantly reduced attacks by Muslim perpetrator groups, but had no effect on attacks by non-Muslim groups. | The effect is specific to the community undergoing the religious experience, further supporting the idea that it’s about changing attitudes within that community. |
Why This is a Big Deal: A Story of Peace, Not Violence
This research is a powerful antidote to harmful stereotypes. It tells a story of peace, community, and the positive power of faith. Here’s why it matters for everyone:
- It Replaces Assumptions with Evidence: For too long, the conversation about religion and violence has been driven by assumptions. This study provides hard, scientific evidence that intense religious practice can actually reduce support for violence. As the authors state, “intense religious experiences may not be a breeding ground for terrorism. Quite the opposite, they can decrease public support for terrorism and, consequently, terrorist attacks.”
- It Highlights the Importance of Community: The study’s findings suggest that the communal aspects of Ramadan—the shared iftars, the increased prayers, the sense of unity—strengthen social bonds and promote a shared identity that is incompatible with supporting extremism. It’s the “greater jihad,” the internal spiritual struggle, winning out over the “lesser jihad” of external violence.
- It Validates the Experience of Millions: For the millions of Muslims who observe Ramadan in peace and goodwill, this study validates their experience. It shows that their faith is a source of personal and communal strength that actively works against the forces of violence and extremism.
- It Offers a Nuanced Policy Implication: The study suggests that efforts to combat terrorism should not demonize religion. Instead, understanding and supporting the positive, community-building aspects of faith could be a more effective long-term strategy for undermining public support for extremist groups.
The Timing of Peace: It’s Not Just About the Month Itself
An important aspect of the study is that the reduction in terrorism isn’t just during Ramadan itself. The researchers tested this by looking at quarterly data. They found that the negative effect on terrorism persisted for the entire year following Ramadan, not just in the immediate aftermath. This is crucial because it rules out simple explanations, like terrorists being too tired to plan attacks during the fasting month. Instead, it points to a deeper, more lasting shift in attitudes and public support.
A Message of Hope
This study from the Journal of Peace Research is more than just an academic paper. It’s a powerful message of hope. It shows that the ties that bind a community together—shared faith, collective ritual, spiritual reflection—can be a powerful force for peace.
The next time you hear simplistic links drawn between religion and conflict, remember this research. Remember that for the vast majority of Muslims, Ramadan is a time of peace, charity, and spiritual renewal. And now, science shows us that this intense religious experience has a measurable, positive effect on the world, making it a less violent place for everyone. In a complex and often troubling world, that is a finding worth celebrating.
Reference: here
Other Articles:
